City of San Bernardino Third Ward Election Mailer Number One From Tobin Brinker

By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law

I recently obtained the first mailer from Tobin Brinker’s reelection campaign in the Third Ward.  The mailer is very professional and very clean.  The campaign theme on the front is one of experience and responsibility and results:

Honest. Hardworking.
Effective leadership
for San Bernardino.

It continues with a quote and a photograph of Council Member Brinker:

“During tough times, you should expect even more
from city leaders. I will continue to bring jobs to
San Bernardino, cut waste at City Hall and protect
the services important to residents.”
— Councilman Tobin Brinker

It finishes with a link to Council Member Brinker’s website.

The rear of the mailer continues the theme of  experience , results and responsibility with: “Experience We Can Trust” and “Commitment to Improving Our City” and the following text:

Real Results for San Bernardino
As some city leaders struggled with the economic downturn, Councilman Tobin
Brinker simply did what all San Bernardino families had to do…he rolled up his
sleeves and worked hard to make things better.
Councilman Tobin Brinker’s hard work has paid off for the families of Ward 3
and all San Bernardino residents. See the results and decide for yourself if he’s been
working hard for us.
Balanced City Budget. As we all have to do in our homes, Councilman
Brinker fought to cut spending and live within our city’s means.
Reduced Crime. Murders, car thefts and robberies are all down citywide,
graffiti removal is faster and school truancy has been been reduced.
Supported Senior Housing Options. Helped protect rent control in senior
housing communities and supports providing more affordable housing
options for seniors.
Improved Local Parks. Reopened Nicholson Park and new KABOOM
playground at Lytle Creek Park.
Attracted and Retained Local Businesses. Assisted in retaining 500
jobs by helping Inland Regional Center stay in San Bernardino and helped
bring Hilton Garden Inn to city.
Created Jobs.

• 275 jobs created through Perris Campus Plaza project on Tippecanoe Ave.
• 800 jobs retained in city and 200 more added with Wells Fargo/OPUS call center project on Hospitality Lane.
• 400 jobs created at Loma Linda University AHSC billing center on Redlands Blvd.

Connect with Councilman Brinker at
www.fb.me/VOTEBRINKER
Re-Elect Councilman Tobin Brinker on November 8th!

There are three pictures, one of Council Member Brinker in clean-up mode, perhaps from the recent City-wide cleanup; a second of Loma Linda University billing center mentioned in the text, and a third with Nicholson Park, also mentioned in the text.

The flier is on-message, and focuses on the things that his challenger, John Valdivia cannot point to: experience as Third Ward Council Member. Jobs is a key issue in the race, and this flier addresses that issue simply.  City infrastructure (pothole politics) is always a local issue of interest, and Council Member Brinker touches on this issue with the “improved local parks” portion of the mailer.  Crime, or the perception of Crime is a perennial issue in San Bernardino politics.

The use of both the Facebook account (as a way to connect to voters), and the website (for more in-depth information) was a good way to tell prospective voters ways to learn more and connect with the campaign.  Contrast that to the first Jim Penman mailer and Chas Kelley’s mailer, which have a telephone number and an email address, which are more traditional ways of contacting a politician.  Both are probably effective, but it shows a different approach.

There is a definite lack of clutter on the mailer.  Part of that is,  as the incumbent, Tobin Brinker does not have to introduce himself to the Third Ward.  If the voter is new or unaware of Tobin Brinker’s background as a teacher, or how long he has lived in the Third Ward, they can get that information at the website, and to a lesser extent at the Facebook page.

More Third Ward Council Election November 8, 2011 Posts: Using Historical Data To Handicap the City of San Bernardino Third Ward City Council Election in November 2011, The San Bernardino Police Officers Association Hit Piece on Tobin Brinker, John Valdivia Sign in the City of Loma Linda, What People Are Searching For In the November 8, 2011 Election.

The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.

Copyright 2011 Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Address : 1255 W. Colton Ave., Suite 104

Redlands, CA 92374

Telephone: (909) 708-6055

Email: michael@michaelreiterlaw.com

Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com

Using Historical Data To Handicap The City of San Bernardino Third Ward City Council Election in November 2011

By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law

I was talking to a high-ranking local public official yesterday about a previous blog post, and it gave me the idea for this post.  I am going to look at data (from the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters) from the most recent elections to see if we can discern any patterns.  I will not actually handicap the race.

Here is the last race, November 2007:

COUNCIL MEMBER – CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO WARD 3
Vote For 1	16 of 16 Precincts Reporting
CANDIDATE VOTES PERCENT TOBIN BRINKER 890 97.27% Write-In 25 2.73%

Council Member Tobin Brinker won re-election with 97.27 of the vote.  Of course, he was running unopposed.  The election featured a contested City Clerk and City Attorney election, but the turn out was only 915 voters.  The Wards all have almost exact population.  Taking the 2000 Census population of the City of San Bernardino (185,401), that means roughly 26,401 people live in the Ward.  I don’t have data about the registered voters in the Third Ward in 2007, but you have to exclude non-citizens, people under the age of 18, and people disqualified from voting. The 2007 election was only a year after the special election to finish Gordon McGinnis’ term in November 2006.  That, however, was held during a General Election, including Congressional elections:

CANDIDATE	VOTES	PERCENT
TOBIN BRINKER	1344	51.38%
GWEN TERRY	843	32.22%
RANDY LALLY	411	15.71%
Write-In	18	0.69%

 

That’s 2,616 votes.  There, you had a three-way race, and this time, it is a two person election.  Tobin Brinker had not affiliated with the Mayor Morris camp at that time.

Gordon McGinnis’ last term was marked by low turn-out, and he had angered some local voters in regards to his comments regarding the Omnitrans refueling station, including his opponent. In the  November 4, 2003 election:

CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO

Member City Council,

Ward 3

GORDON McGINNIS                       382   56.34

JAN MISQUEZ                                 295   43.51

WRITE-IN                                           1    0.15

 

That’s a pitiful 678 votes total, with a margin of 87 votes.  That means if 44 voters could have been convinced to change their votes from Gordon McGinnis to Jan Misquez, the results would have been different (or even if the challenger ran a better get out the vote effort).  Compare that to the 7th Ward election that year, where 1,839 votes were cast, the 5th Ward election where 2,347 votes were cast or even the historically low turn out of the 6th Ward was 1,156.  In the only contested city-wide election in November 2003, City Treasurer, there were an average of 1,330 votes per ward.  Of course, the majority was probably from the 5th, 4th and 7th Wards, where the bulk of the voters live.

The last election for which I have data is Gordon McGinnis’ first election, November 2, 1999:

San Bernardino Ward 3

Vote For 1 9 of 9 Precincts Reporting CANDIDATE VOTES PERCENT GUS LARA-GONZALEZ 364 40.4% GORDON C MCGINNIS 536 59.5%

900 votes total were cast.  Not quite as pitiful as 2003.  However, the City Treasurer, City Clerk and City Attorney race were uncontested.

The takeaway: The race will be close.  This is part of the larger two-sided battle for the soul of the City of San Bernardino.  Tobin Brinker is firmly in the Mayor Morris camp: (evidence: his website has endorsements from Mayor Pat Morris, First Ward Council Member Virginia Marquez, Fourth Ward Council Member Fred Shorrett and Sixth Ward Council Member Rikke Van Johnson, as well as former Third Ward Council Members Gordon McGinnis, Rita Arias, and former opponent Gwen Terry).

John Valdivia is firmly in what I will call the anti-Mayor Morris group), (evidence:  John Valdivia’s website lists endorsements from the two public safety unions, former Mayor Evelyn Wilcox, Stephanie Allen, Roger Henderson).

The incumbent certainly has the edge in this and in all races.  Since the year 2000, the incumbent has won all of the city-wide races (Mayor, City Attorney, City Clerk and City Treasurer). Since 2001, there have been 15 council elections in San Bernardino involving an incumbent.  Of those 15 elections, only four candidates have beaten incumbents: Virginia Marquez beat Esther Estrada by 30 votes in the 1st Ward in November 2009, Jason Desjardins beat Dennis Baxter by 80 votes in the 2nd Ward in November 2009, Chas Kelley beat Joe Suarez in the 5th Ward election in November 2003 in a landslide, and Rikke Van Johnson beat Betty Dean Anderson in the 6th Ward by 79 votes in the 6th Ward in the same election.

Based on this data, I would give the edge to the incumbent, and I would be surprised if John Valdivia won.   I would expect the more affluent areas of the Third Ward (the area adjoining Cooley Ranch in Colton will provide most of the voters.   A key difference between the 1999 and 2003 races and today is vote by mail.  I would expect that the Mayor would be more popular in the Third Ward, so that the endorsement would prove valuable.  I would expect the impact of the fire union walking precincts in the Third Ward would have less impact than, say, in the Fifth Ward.  Crime is probably an important issue to residents of the Third Ward as it is city-wide, and I think the statistics are less important than how people feel about the issue.  I think John Valdivia’s endorsement by the POA can help him on that point.  The gradual decline in city services city-wide could have an impact on the race (for example, street lights and potholes not being repaired).  Both candidates have made jobs an issue, and the economy has hurt the Third Ward, particularly Hospitality Lane.

The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.

Copyright 2011 Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Address : 1255 W. Colton Ave., Suite 104

Redlands, CA 92374

Telephone: (909) 708-6055

Email: michael@michaelreiterlaw.com

Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com

Contact Information for City of San Bernardino Candidates Election 2011

By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law

[Updated October 18, 2011]

The City of San Bernardino’s municipal election in November 2011  is very important to the people of San Bernardino.  Traditionally, there has not been a lot of quality information, and as local news-gathering diminishes, I thought, as a public service, I could provide a list of contact information.  I was frustrated a few years ago in a “Pick 4″ election for a school board.  I knew two of my votes, but rather than undervote, or randomly vote, I tried to find information about the other people running for office.  It was very difficult to do.  In our online age, that should no longer be an issue.  In that spirit, here is the contact information that I have so far as of October 18, 2011 for the November 8, 2011 election.  I am including the contested races.  The phone numbers and email are from the public internet, usually the campaign website or the public Facebook Info Page.   If any candidate wants any of this information changed, updated or removed, I will do so upon contact by the campaign.  Once again, the order is the same as on the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters Candidate list :

City of San Bernardino Third Ward

Tobin Brinker:  Website, Facebook. As of the morning of October 7 2011, there is no phone number on the official campaign website,  Email.

John Valdivia:  Website,  Facebook,  Phone number: (877) 825–3270, Email.

City of San Bernardino Fifth Ward

Chas Kelley: Friends of Chas Kelley sent a letter with a magnet.  The magnet says, among other things, “Visit Chas on Facebook,” but I’m still unable to find a Facebook profile for Council Member Kelley as of October 7, 2011.  The magnet also gives a Phone Number: (909) 648-3506 and an Email.

Larry A. Lee:  Website, Facebook,  Email.

City of San Bernardino Seventh Ward

Wendy McCammack does not appear to have an online campaign presence at this time.  I was unable to locate an email address nor a phone number as of October 18, 2011

Jim Mulvihill: Facebook,  Phone Number (from public Facebook Page): 909-886-1333, Email.

City of San Bernardino City Clerk

Georgeann “Gigi” Hanna  Facebook,  Website, Phone Number from Public Facebook Page: 909-709-2019, Email.

Peggi Hazlett:  Facebook, as of October 6, 2011, no other information.

Esther Jimenez:  Facebook, Email.

Amelia Sanchez-Lopez:  Website,  Facebook, Phone number (from Jim Penman’s mailer #2) (909) 882-7085,  Email.

William A. Valle: Website,  Facebook, Phone Number from Public Facebook Page: (909) 486-5636, Email.

City Attorney

David L. McKenna:  Website, Facebook, Phone Number from Campaign Flier and Campaign Website: (909) 264-9021, Email.

James F. “Jim” Penman: Website (as of 10/18/2011, not yet functional, but mentioned in second mailer), Phone Number from Mailers: (909) 882-8986, Email.

The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.

Copyright 2011 Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Address : 1255 W. Colton Ave., Suite 104

                     Redlands, CA 92374

Telephone: (909) 708-6055

Email: michael@michaelreiterlaw.com

Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com

Signs of Fall: Election Billboards and Campaign Signs Popping Up in San Bernardino for Election 2011

By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law

Chas Kelley, before he was elected to the Council, told a story of how he kept calling a local billboard company to make sure that he would be able to rent the billboards.  Apparently, he still is in contact with the billboard company because the Chas Kelley billboard, appropriately in Kelly green, is up on Kendall Drive.  There is also a Gigi Hanna lawn sign on the Habitat for Humanity house  built on E Street, and a Larry Lee yard sign further south on E Street, including a website address on the sign.

Let’s look at the state of affairs in the 2011 election so far (taken, in the same order, and same ballot titles as the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters Candidate list :

The candidates

Third Ward:

Tobin Brinker, Teacher/Councilman

John Valdivia, Advertising Representative

Fifth Ward

Chas A. Kelley, City Councilman, 5th Ward

Larry A. Lee, Minister/Sr. Pastor

Sixth Ward

Rikke Van Johnson

Seventh Ward

Wendy J. McCammack, Councilwoman/Business Owner

Jim Mulvihill, University Professor/Businessman

City Clerk

Georgeann “Gigi” Hanna, Communications/Administration Manager

Peggi Hazlett, Assistant to Mayor

Esther Jimenez, Senior Legislative Assistant

Amelia Sanchez-Lopez, Health Education Specialist

William A. Valle, Maintenance Clerk

City Attorney

David L. McKenna, Civil Litigation Attorney

James F. “Jim” Penman

San Bernardino City Attorney

City Treasurer

David C. Kennedy
Where are we in this campaign?  It’s just getting started.  As I related in the earlier discussion regarding the City Clerk’s race; local candidates wait until after Labor Day, but can be punished if they wait too long because of the effect of vote by mail.  According to the Registrar, the first day that Vote by Mail ballots can be mailed is October 11, 2011.  Similarly, early voting at the Registrar of Voters begins on October 11, 2011, a little than a month before the elections.  This is the “get to know you” part of the campaign, where candidates extoll their virtues rather than attack their opponent (the City Attorney’s race notwithstanding).

So, which candidates are on the ball and have working internet sites (that can be found at this date and time)?

As of the morning of September 13, 2011, less than two months from the election, in the same Registrar of Voters order:

City of San Bernardino Third Ward

These are the most notable sites of all the elections:

Third Ward council member Tobin Brinker has a functional, up-to-date website, and a Facebook page.  The main site has a blog.  There are links to YouTube endorsement videos, which is a cost-effective use of video.

Third Ward challenger John Valdivia has a website, too.  And a Facebook page and a Twitter feed.  They are not quite as polished as council member Brinker’s sites, but they are full of enthusiasm that any challenger could use as a model.

City of San Bernardino Fifth Ward

Fifth Ward council member Chas Kelley does not appear to have a website up and running at this moment.

Fifth Ward challenger Larry A. Lee has a website and a more active Facebook page.

City of San Bernardino Sixth Ward

Rikke Van Johnson is running unopposed.  Council member Johnson does have a personal Facebook page.  There is a link to website on the page, but it is currently a dead link.

City of San Bernardino Seventh Ward

Seventh Ward Council member Wendy McCammack does not appear to have an online presence at this time.

Perennial Seventh Ward challenger Jim Mulvihill has a Facebook page, but does not appear to have a website.

City of San Bernardino City Clerk

This is a rare open race with no incumbent.

City Clerk candidate Georgeann “Gigi” Hanna.  It took a little searching, but Ms. Hanna does have a Facebook page.

City Clerk candidate Peggi Hazlett, does not appear to have a web presence at the moment beyond a LinkedIn page that is not related to her bid.

City Clerk candidate Esther Jimenez has a Facebook page.  She does not appear to have a website.

City Clerk candidate Amelia Sanchez-Lopez has a brochure-style website.  Ms. Sanchez-Lopez does not appear to have a Facebook page.

City Clerk candidate William A. Valle has a Facebook page.  He also has a website.

City Attorney

City Attorney challenger David L. McKenna has a very simple website.  He may have a Facebook page, but I was unable to find it.

San Bernardino City Attorney James F. “Jim” Penman does have a website, electpenman.com that still features his last Mayoral campaign.

City Treasurer

City Treasurer David C. Kennedy is unchallenged, and virtually absent from the Internet.

The most interesting information that I have found on the web is the Third Ward race.  I think the other candidates in contested elections should look at the two contenders in that race for ideas about what to do.

The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.

Copyright 2011 Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.

Address : 1255 W. Colton Ave., Suite 104

Redlands, CA 92374

Telephone: (909) 708-6055

Email: michael@michaelreiterlaw.com

Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com